New Mexico State vs Nevada 11/20/2010

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Nevada is a heavy favorite winning 97% of simulations over New Mexico State. Colin Kaepernick is averaging 211 passing yards and 2.2 TDs per simulation and Vai Taua is projected for 164 rushing yards and a 91% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 3% of simulations where New Mexico State wins, Matt Christian averages 1.04 TD passes vs 0.2 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.53 TDs to 0.42 interceptions. Seth Smith averages 56 rushing yards and 0.46 rushing TDs when New Mexico State wins and 46 yards and 0.22 TDs in losses. Nevada has a 39% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 99% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NEV -36

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